Congo's Ebola Outbreak on Track to Surpass History's Deadliest
The Ebola outbreak in Congo is spreading at an unprecedented speed and could be three times the current known size, according to data from authorities and Africa's top public health agency.
The Ebola outbreak in Congo has not peaked yet and is on track to surpass the deadliest on record, which occurred between 2014 and 2016 in West Africa with over 11,000 deaths.
The World Health Organization says this latest outbreak is history's fastest, with 2,516 deaths out of 5,290 confirmed cases recorded in Congo's vast eastern region. The outbreak is exacerbated by an intensely mobile population, including those displaced by armed conflicts, and distrust of medical authorities.
According to Yap Boum, PhD, MPH, head of emergency preparedness and response at the Africa CDC, less than 10% of cases are currently coming from known contacts, far below the 90-95% rate when the outbreak can be said to be under control.
The data show that under current estimates, only 30% to 40% of cases have been detected.
Ebola Outbreak Statistics
| 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola Outbreak | Congo's 2022 Ebola Outbreak | |
|---|---|---|
| Cases | over 28,000 | 5,290 |
| Deaths | more than 11,000 | 2,516 |
| Week from declaration | 13th week | 13th week |
| Cases compared to history's largest | 1 | 10 |
| Deaths compared to history's largest | 1 | 7 |
Compared to the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak, this outbreak has recorded ten times more cases and seven times more deaths by the 13th week from when it was declared, data from the Africa CDC show. Congo's deadliest Ebola outbreak before now had been that of 2018-2020 with 3,400 cases and more than 2,200 deaths. This is moving 18 times faster in terms of the confirmed cases and 13 times faster regarding the deaths.
One key source of concern is that experts believe the outbreak began spreading from the mining town of Mongbwalu as early as February, months before authorities declared the outbreak on May 15.
Contact Tracing Rate
Africa CDC data from the past 3 weeks show the contact tracing rate of those exposed to patients is 82% out of 19,630 contacts in total. However, many of those contacts are not known, and therefore cannot be contacted for follow-up. Therefore, the "actual contact tracing rate is only 16% of the expected," the Africa CDC said in its update.
The outbreak is caused by Bundibugyo virus, which has no approved vaccines or treatments, unlike the most common Ebola virus type, Zaire. Its symptoms also are milder, which could mean that many patients feel less immediate need to alert responders or seek treatment.
A previously unaffected province, Bas-Uele, has now recorded two cases over the past week and a half in two separate parts of the province. However, the spread is slowing down in some places, such as in South Kivu province, which has not recorded any case for 79 days.
Most people are dying without medical attention, with deaths in the community constituting an overwhelming 97% of the deaths reported on August 17, the Africa CDC data show. Despite this, only 20% of health alerts are coming from within the community, underscoring the need to engage more communities.
And although the overall case fatality rate is 46.7%, it is quite high in some places such as North Kivu, one of the country's most populous, where the rate is 68.2%.
The data suggest most people are still not reporting symptoms early or at all for various reasons: misinformation that the outbreak isn't real, initial preference for traditional medicine, fear of being kept in isolation especially in the event that initial symptoms are of something else, or the lack of severe symptoms.
